Myanmar Tin Ore Production Resumption Yet to Materialize, SHFE Tin Prices Maintain a Fluctuating Trend [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM Tin Morning Meeting Summary on March 3, 2025 International Macro: With the Two Sessions approaching, the market is focusing on the potential release of domestic policy benefits, which may strengthen tin prices. On the international front, close attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on tin and other non-ferrous metals, as well as the US PCE data to be released on Friday, which will provide guidance on the US Fed's interest rate path. Market volatility is expected to increase ahead of the Fed's rate meeting. The US dollar index pulled back to around 107 after weak January retail sales data, providing short-term support for the non-ferrous metals sector. However, Fed governors emphasized the need for more evidence of declining inflation before cutting interest rates, dampening risk appetite.

From the perspective of the domestic tin ore market, the overall trend shows strong futures and relatively weak spot performance. Supply side, the anticipated resumption of Myanmar tin ore production has not yet materialized. Wa State is considering restarting mining, but no specific timetable has been set, leading to bearish market sentiment. Domestic tin ore supply remains relatively stable, but inventory pressure is significant. SHFE tin inventory has increased, while LME tin inventory has fallen to a one-year low. Demand side, growth in demand from the electronics and new energy sectors supports tin prices, but traditional consumption sectors remain weak. Downstream enterprises are resuming operations at a slow pace, market trading activity is low, and social inventory buildup is evident. Spot transactions are sluggish, with most downstream enterprises restocking during price pullbacks, resulting in limited overall trading volume.

In summary, SHFE tin prices are expected to hover at highs in the short term, with a trading range of 252,000–258,000 yuan/mt. Tight supply conditions and potential growth in new energy demand will continue to support tin prices, but macro policy uncertainties and weak traditional consumption may limit upside room. Investors should closely monitor US Fed policy developments and the progress of Myanmar tin ore production resumption, while being cautious of volatility risks from the spread between futures and spot prices. As the Two Sessions approach, market expectations for macro policy benefits are increasing, and attention should also be paid to statements from relevant representatives. The US dollar index is under pressure and declining, boosting SHFE tin prices denominated in yuan. Meanwhile, the strong performance of gold and other precious metals also provides linked support to the non-ferrous sector. From a technical perspective, the short-term resistance level for the most-traded SHFE tin contract has moved up to around 268,000 yuan/mt, with support at 255,000 yuan/mt. In the coming period, SHFE tin prices may hover at highs, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include a weaker US dollar, expectations of overseas destocking, tight domestic supply, and policy-driven demand stimulation. Bearish risks include slower-than-expected downstream resumption progress, expanded spot discounts suppressing purchase willingness, and selling pressure triggered by high prices.